Pv- Price Violence Indicator

Pv indicator over time shows about 89% accuracy. is only for daytrading, and just for S&P 500. does not give a trade signal every day, about half the time gives a "No Bet" signal, i.e., "heck if i know!" LOL. but when it does give signal is usually right. if trade signal is given, it comes EOD and you enter next morning. but entry problem is-- well, maybe i explain first what signal says...

it says that "sometime" tomorrow will be a price either above OR below today's close. so problem comes up if the open tomorrow is already at that point "above" or "below" (and if you aren't sure which way it goes from there). but let's say the signal says tomorrow will show a price sometime that's above today's close. and then tomorrow it opens someplace below today's close. then you could go long or buy calls and hold 'til it at least crosses above that.

i have access to this and will post it a few times to see if anybody finds it useful. be back after the close today. lately the Pv has run through a long string of No Bets (and a couple of "wrongs") so statistically it should now begin running some good trades. please let me know if you find this useful after a few days.

EDIT~~ ah, okay, looks like i can give it to you now. this read stays TRUE unless SPX goes radical before close, like down below about 1208.50 (i'll post again 10 mins before close if new read occurs; otherwise stays the same)...
Sometime Thursday should see a value ABOVE today's close. yes, you could trade on that before close, but you might get a better entry tomorrow. remember, it's wrong about 10% of the time. useful stoploss is about 7 handles from your ENTRY, whatever that may be, e.g., if long entry 1208.76, stoploss at 1201.76. obviously not a good idea to use option prices for stoploss settings- use SPX itself.

 

no change to above forecast.

 

reading for Friday: a value sometime that will be greater than today's close.

will post correction ONLY if this changes by 3:55pm ET.

 

today registered a No Bet for Monday.
Hudson Pv forecasts for past two days were correct.

 

reading for Tuesday: a value sometime that will be LOWER than today's close.

 

well, Pv's first failure- today was a great lesson in using that +/- 7-handle stoploss mentioned earlier (if you entered yesterday). if you waited for a short entry this morning, you were probably saved by seeing the rocket nature of the first 5 mins of SPX trading.

tentatively, today is registering a No Bet for Wednesday. not likely to change by the close unless flying saucers attack earth or they start throwing solid gold nuggets at us... if that happens, i'll re-state by 10 mins before close.
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EDIT~~ OF NOTE, unrelated to the Pv- if the close holds above 1225, it will be above the Andrews Pitchfork defined by 11/15, 11/25, 12/7, in which case it can target the Hagopian line of abt 1267, with intermediate resistance at about 1259 (1259 is a proprietary determination).

 

No Bet for Thursday.

 

No Bet for Friday.

 

today shaping up to be another No Bet for Tuesday trading (mkt closed Monday). i will post abt 10 mins before close if that changes.
obviously, Pv is not for the compulsive trader who must trade every day. it's designed for conservation of capital and modest profits.

unrelated to the Hudson Pv, note that Hagopian is now within reach at about 1269, representing very strong resistance; any close above that may signal massive runup.

 

reading for Wednesday: a value sometime that will be LOWER than today's close, unless today there is powerful militant action up or down before close (i'll post again in 5 mins if that happens)

 

reading for Thursday: a value sometime that will be LOWER than today's close. yesterday's forecast for today was correct.

 

No Bet for Friday.
yesterday's call for today was correct but not very profitable.

 

No Bet for Tuesday (market closed Monday).
looks like i can post images now. i'll try that later so you can see what i'm seeing.

 

below is what i'm seeing. if you're finding this useful, please say so- otherwise not much point in posting, eh?

the turquoise plot at bottom is called Warn, and it must agree with the Green plot above it; if no agreement, then it's No Bet. by "agree" i mean they must both rotate in the same direction, clockwise or counterclockwise. for example, if you look at Tuesday in the above chart (the last day shown is Friday), you can see they both rotated counterclockwise, indicating a price sometime Wednesday below the Tuesday close. a clockwise rotation of both means a price sometime the next day that's above the signal day's close.

the stats are pretty good on this, mentioned earlier. but what's of interest too is what the crosses of red and blue with green mean. comments welcome.

 

Forecast for Wednesday: unless SPX drops below 1270 before close, there should be a value sometime Wednesday that will be LOWER than today's close (anticlockwise rotation of Green and Warn). if drop by close today below 1270, then No Bet.

 

Forecast for Thursday: for now, there should be a value sometime Thursday that will be HIGHER than today's close (clockwise rotation of Green and Warn). BUT, if today closes below 1277.03, it's No Bet for Thursday.
yesterday's forecast for today was correct.

 

No Bet for Friday.
yesterday's forecast for today was correct. pretty shocking how it happened too, after the first hour of trading.

 

No Bet for Monday.

 

Forecast for Tuesday: there should be a value sometime Tuesday that will be HIGHER than today's close (clockwise rotation of Green and Warn).

 

Forecast for Wednesday: No Bet. Green and Warn disagree.
charts for today and yesterday below.